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exponential. how accelerating technology is leaving us behind and what to do about it. azeem azhar. random house business hardback. 340pp £20

exponential - azeem azhar

the bicycle has remained remarkably faithful to its origins for more than one hundred years, though the last couple of decades may have been more at the behest of the uci, than any demonstrable lack of development. granted, in the intervening years we've acquired more gears than are truly necessary, electronic shifting of those gears, and disc brakes that would not have seemed out of place on a 1955 citroen. but looked at with a wider perspective, the humble analogue bicycle has not exhibited what might be described as untrammeled growth and development.

in this respect, it's hardly alone. the motor industry has scarcely outshone the bicycle industry in an arguably shorter period. the development of the latter has continued apace, but the fundamental principles of the average family saloon are pretty much as they were in 1940s or 50s. it's mostly body styles that have changed, and that often seems to have had more to do with fashion than any technological aspect. televisions have moved from cathode ray tubes to light emitting diodes and incorporated so-called smart technologies, but anyone witnessing the first broadcast in 1934 would probably recognise a tv in a modern sitting room without too much difficulty.

the electric bike, on the other hand more closely resembles the principles espoused by author azeem azhar in this intriguing book, entitled 'exponential'. you see, the bicycle, the motor car, televisions, cookers, fridges, et al have exhibited the sort of growth that we all pretty much take for granted. in other words, slow and measured. the electric bicycle, though perhaps not the finest example, has displayed something closer to exponential growth. the first modern-day electric bike surfaced around 1989, simmering in the background ever since, increasing in number year on year, until, within the last few years, it has experienced phenomenal growth over a relatively short period of time.

azhar, however, features differing, more dramatic examples like amazon, apple, google and facebook, all of whom have outgrown more traditional businesses at an alarming rate, underlining the subtitle of exponential - 'accelerating technology is leaving us behind'. however, this is not necessarily a publication solely for those with the wherewithal to comprehend the technologies that are landing upon us from a great height.

"...I'll aim to help non-technologists get a better understanding of the technologies underpinning this period of rapid social change."

and the latter is probably the key phrase to understanding why you (and by 'you', i mean 'me') need to read this book. for instance, for those who have no interest in owning or riding a bicycle, its presence in modern society impinges very little if at all. i do not own a motor car and have little intention of changing that, aside from which, its presence in society has not been one to cause particularly rapid change. likewise a fridge or television. those are both accepted parts of society and are unlikely to alter any perceptions to a great degree. however, a recent call to british telecom for technical support with our new cloud voice system, resulted in an answer message that suggested i might more pragmatically contact them on whatsapp. and anyone booking a vehicle on calmac ferries is asked for a mobile phone number to allow the ferry company to contact them by text should conditions or sailing times change. both of these are dependent on ownership of a smartphone. the iphone was released in 2007, taking a mere fourteen years for its presence to inveigle its way into almost complete social acceptance.

so what does the author mean by exponential? in the preface, he explains that new technologies are being invented and scaled at an ever-faster pace, all while decreasing rapidly in price. "If we were to plot the rise of these technologies on a graph, they would follow a curved, exponential line." and should you have found the rate of technological change just a tad on the exponential side, you are, apparently, not alone. according to mr azhar, the public relations company edelmann runs an annual survey on trust in the public sphere. "One of their key questions - put to 30,000 people in 20 countries - is whether they feel comfortable with how quickly technology was moving. In 2020, more than 60 percent of respondents felt the 'pace of change was too fast', a number that has been creeping upwards for several years."

to bring home just how much the world's technologies and technology companies have affected not only society, but government, the author cites the current covid-19 pandemic as an ideal example. governmental implementation of so-called 'track and trace' smartphone apps had more to do with the world's principal technology companies than either holyrood or westminster. both apple and google "...updated their operating systems to enable some underlying components, which made building contact-tracing apps easier." as azeem azhar perceptively points out, the tech giants' software updates became a contributory factor in allowing governments to build more effective contact-tracing apps. "But it also underlined that it was Apple and Google who determined what governments and scientists could - and could not- do. The code had become law."

the author writes knowledgeably about his subject matter, in a more than approachable style, and one that equates well to both believers and disbelievers alike. i would take issue with his perceptions and appraisals on one or two occasions, but surely that's the mark of a good book? and there may be an unintentional bias towards those who have done most to effect change, particularly in relation to the salaries commanded by the few at the top. when discussing remuneration of employees in this exponential age, azhar infers that these often eyewatering salaries will be discussed later in the book, but i found little to corroborate this. when you read that he has been the founder of several tech start-ups (subsequently sold) and is now an active start-up investor, it's not hard to see from which side of the fence his observations arise. that said, the majority of his narrative seems commendably even-handed.

my attraction to the bicycle is based predomiantly on its relative simplicity. i don't need electronic gear shifting, wireless or otherwise, and i'm pretty sure i can survive without hydraulic disc brakes, good though they may be. i don't own a smartphone, so many of the technologies that rely upon it pass me by. however, i am relatively fortunate, as my work allows me the luxury of not being dependent on smartphone ownership, leaving me mercifully free from associated technologies. but to be honest, i'm surprised that has remained possible. it's a luxury that applies to fewer and fewer these days, as does reliance on social media. even if you embrace all the technologies described in this book, it's worth reading if only to place your comfort and joy in some sort of perspective. this is not a book about bicycles or bicycle technology in any way, shape or form, but as we potentially enter the dawn of a new and increasingly electrified transport era, there are many parallels to which it's worth paying attention.

a compulsory purchase.

wednesday 8 september 2021

twmp ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................